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Authors

Barmina S.

Degree
student, Kazan national technical research university named after A. N. Tupolev — KAI
E-mail
molibdenbora@yandex.ru
Location
Kazan
Articles

Correlation analysis and forecasting of SYN-flood attacks

DDoS-attacks are included in the top-10 network attacks and lead to serious failures in the work of web-resources. In the paper DDoS-attacks, their classification and methods of protection are considered. Particular attention is paid to the most common type of DDoS-attacks ‒ SYN-flood attacks, correlation analysis of their time series and forecasting. In the paper, the correlation analysis of the time series of SYNflood attacks is implemented, the coefficient of data autocorrelation and seasonal indices are determined. The forecasting of SYN-flood attacks for the coming quarters of 2018 and 2019 was carried out using simple exponential smoothing. During the investigation, it was revealed that protection against DDoSattacks should be implemented taking into account the mechanism of DDoS-attack. Depending on it, you should use hardware, software or mixed protection. Investigation of SYN-flood attacks showed that this type of attacks is the most dangerous: acting at the network level and clogging the network channel with parasitic traffic, SYN-flood attack destroys the end equipment. The correlation analysis of the time series of SYN-flood attacks showed that they are seasonally characterized: the greatest number of attacks is expected in the first and third quarters of 2018 and 2019. For DDoS-attacks lasting up to 4 hours, seasonality in the first quarter of the calendar year was also revealed, which means that in the first quarter of 2019 the greatest number of attacks of a given duration should be expected. The relation between SYN-flood attacks and attacks of up to 4 hours is moderately strong, not critical, can be traced when the delay is 3 lag time (in our case, 3 quarters). According to the forecast made using the simple exponential smoothing method, 57.1% of DDoS attacks of the SYN type are expected in the second quarter of 2018, in the III and IV quarters of 2018 their number will be respectively 55.35% and 57.12%. In the first quarter of 2019, 58.73% of SYN-flood attacks are expected, in the II quarter of 2019 ‒ 57.08%.
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