Authors
Ivaschenko V.
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Degree
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Dr of Engineering, Professor, Academic Secretary, Institute of Precision Mechanics and Control, Russian Academy of Sciences |
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E-mail
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iptmuran@san.ru |
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Location
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Saratov |
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Articles
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Model to assess the state of Russia’s national security, based on system dynamics theory
Actual today is the development of mathematical models for simulation experiments to ensure the
country’s transition to sustainable development. The main indicators of national security, according to
Presidential Decree № 683 «National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation» are: satisfaction of citizen
of degree of protection of their constitutional rights and freedoms, personal and property interests,
including from criminal encroachments; the share of modern weapons, military and special equipment
in the Russian Armed Forces; the life expectancy; gross domestic product per capita; inflation; the share
of expenditure in the gross domestic product for culture, as well as the development of science, technology
and education; the part of the territory of the Russian Federation, that do not meet environmental
standards. Developed a complex of mathematical models for modeling and the prognostication indicators
of Russia’s national security. Mathematical model developed based on system dynamics models,
allows formalizing the complex casual relationships between system variables. System dynamics model
consists of the following elements: the system levels (the simulated variables), which represent the accumulation
of (accumulation) in feedback circuits; streams conveying the content of one level to another;
making procedures that govern the rate of flow between the levels; information channels connecting procedures
decisions levels. To describe the model developed using the apparatus of ordinary differential
equations. As systemic levels presented the indicators of national security. To illustrate the casual relationships
between system-level mathematical model developed using the graph model. Regression models
are used to verify the adequacy of system dynamics models. An algorithm is proposed for determining
of indicators of national security for solves the system of nonlinear differential equations. Shows the
practical implementation of the mathematical support developed and compared predictive values of indicators
of national security. Performed modeling of chaotic phenomena in the Russian economy in 1994.
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The mathematical models and algorithms of operational control for equipment TPPThis treatise about the developing a mathematical model and algorithm selection to pick a set of
measures for the ascertainment of a specific technical and economic regime TPP equipment in real-time
using a formal mode. The formal task was: to develop mathematical models and algorithms that allow
a formal way to select a set of activities used to select a certain technical and economic regime for a
TPP management system in real time. To select the arrangement that are used for solving problems of
choice regime of equipment was built instrument based on the use of abstract logic and AND/OR graph.
The conversion Karnaugh maps into AND/OR-graph helps to divide decision parent task into subsidiary
tasks, which is demonstrable for decision-makers. As a result, an algorithm for processing three
generalized scenarios was proposed, which is implemented by an information system for aggregating
and analyzing technical and economic indicators and in which it is possible to implement such an algorithm.
The use of such an approach will reduce costs for expensive experts, distribute responsibilities,
enable operational personnel of TPPs to accumulate, edit and aggregate the knowledge of various
specialists, leading to improved quality of production and financial planning of generating companies.
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