Authors
Yandybaeva N.
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Degree
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PhD in Technique, Associate Professor of department of information and documentation management, Balakovo branch of the Russian academy of national economy and public administration under the President of the Russian Federation |
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E-mail
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nat07@inbox.ru |
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Location
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Balakovo |
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Articles
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Applying Forrester model for higher school educational process quality controlHigher school educational process is approached from system dynamic point of view and Forrester model. The method suggested aims to educational process quality control. Normalized higher school accreditation indicators are used to manage the task. To correct the model regressive analysis is introduced. Read more...Model to assess the state of Russia’s national security, based on system dynamics theory
Actual today is the development of mathematical models for simulation experiments to ensure the
country’s transition to sustainable development. The main indicators of national security, according to
Presidential Decree № 683 «National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation» are: satisfaction of citizen
of degree of protection of their constitutional rights and freedoms, personal and property interests,
including from criminal encroachments; the share of modern weapons, military and special equipment
in the Russian Armed Forces; the life expectancy; gross domestic product per capita; inflation; the share
of expenditure in the gross domestic product for culture, as well as the development of science, technology
and education; the part of the territory of the Russian Federation, that do not meet environmental
standards. Developed a complex of mathematical models for modeling and the prognostication indicators
of Russia’s national security. Mathematical model developed based on system dynamics models,
allows formalizing the complex casual relationships between system variables. System dynamics model
consists of the following elements: the system levels (the simulated variables), which represent the accumulation
of (accumulation) in feedback circuits; streams conveying the content of one level to another;
making procedures that govern the rate of flow between the levels; information channels connecting procedures
decisions levels. To describe the model developed using the apparatus of ordinary differential
equations. As systemic levels presented the indicators of national security. To illustrate the casual relationships
between system-level mathematical model developed using the graph model. Regression models
are used to verify the adequacy of system dynamics models. An algorithm is proposed for determining
of indicators of national security for solves the system of nonlinear differential equations. Shows the
practical implementation of the mathematical support developed and compared predictive values of indicators
of national security. Performed modeling of chaotic phenomena in the Russian economy in 1994.
Read more...
Mathematical models, algorithms and complexes of programs for the analysis and forecasting of national security indicatorsThe description of the mathematical model for the analysis of the state and forecasting the national
security of the state is presented. The model is developed based on the system dynamics model. As
model variables, the model uses national security indicators of various countries of the world (BRICS,
UN). The model also uses external factors selected on the basis of correlation analysis and analysis
of interrelated time series that affect the modeled variables. To illustrate the cause-effect relationships
between the model variables, a digraph is constructed. The procedure for the formation of a mathematical
forecast model for a specific country using structural coefficients is shown. The adequacy of
the developed model was verified using retrospective data. The results of a computational experiment
with the developed model for the Russian Federation are presented: the process of setting up the model
is analyzed, the working areas of the model are highlighted, and the national security indicators of the
Russian Federation are forecasted until 2020. For the accumulation, processing, analysis of statistical
information necessary for the development of a forecast model and directly for forecasting the national
security indicators of the state, a computer simulation system was developed. The basis of the
computer simulation system is the «Program for modeling and forecasting the main indicators of national
security of the Russian Federation», developed in GUIDE MatLab. The methodology of using
the developed mathematical and software for the training of specialists in the field of national security
on the basis of the educational resources of the RANEPA is presented. The situational training center,
functioning on the basis of the Institute of Law and National Security of the RANEPA and the expertanalytical
center of the RANEPA, is designed to conduct an express analysis of the socio-economic,
political, demographic situation in the region / country; development of scenarios of socio-economic
and political development of the country; modeling of critical situations arising in the real economic,
social, political systems of the country.
Read more...
Mathematical models, algorithms and complexes of programs for the analysis and forecasting of national security indicatorsThe description of the mathematical model for the analysis of the state and forecasting the national security of the state is presented. The model is developed based on the system dynamics model. As model variables, the model uses national security indicators of various countries of the world (BRICS,UN). The model also uses external factors selected on the basis of correlation analysis and analysis of interrelated time series that affect the modeled variables. To illustrate the cause-effect relationships between the model variables, a digraph is constructed. The procedure for the formation of a mathematical forecast model for a specific country using structural coefficients is shown. The adequacy of the developed model was verified using retrospective data. The results of a computational experiment with the developed model for the Russian Federation are presented: the process of setting up the model is analyzed, the working areas of the model are highlighted, and the national security indicators of the Russian Federation are forecasted until 2020. For the accumulation, processing, analysis of statistical information necessary for the development of a forecast model and directly for forecasting the national security indicators of the state, a computer simulation system was developed. The basis of the computer simulation system is the «Program for modeling and forecasting the main indicators of national security of the Russian Federation», developed in GUIDE MatLab. The methodology of using the developed mathematical and software for the training of specialists in the field of national security on the basis of the educational resources of the RANEPA is presented. The situational training center, functioning on the basis of the Institute of Law and National Security of the RANEPA and the expertanalytical center of the RANEPA, is designed to conduct an express analysis of the socio-economic, political, demographic situation in the region / country; development of scenarios of socio-economic and political development of the country; modeling of critical situations arising in the real economic, social, political systems of the country. Read more... Dynamic model for predicting quality of life indicators in the regionAn approach to assessing and forecasting indicators of the quality of life of the population in the region based on the concept of system dynamics is presented. A mathematical model has been developed, which is a system of non-linear, non- homogeneous, different-tempo differential equations, which include system variables and external factors. A digraph of causal relationships between system variables and external factors is constructed. As system variables, the model uses indicators of socio-economic development of the region: gross regional product, life expectancy at birth, population size, per capita per capita income, registered unemployment rate, birth rate, share of the population with income below the subsistence level, the weight of organizations using personal computers. The choice of external factors and functional dependencies in the developed model is substantiated. The adequacy of the developed mathematical model was checked using retrospective data and the calculation of the relative error. The interface of the author’s software application “Prognoz_2”, developed in the GUIDE MatLab environment, used to conduct computational experiments, is presented. An example of the practical implementation of the developed approach to assessing the quality of life in the Saratov and Samara regions is considered. The results of the computational experiment on the analysis and prediction of the quality of life on the time interval [2022;2026] years within the framework of the implementation of three scenarios are shown. The values of system variables in 2021 normalized relative to 2010 were used as initial conditions for the calculations. The developed software can be used to form scenarios for the socio-economic development of the region. Models and algorithms can be used as part of an information-advising system for making decisions at various levels of management. Read more... |
