Authors
Ross G.
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Degree
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Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Chief Researcher, Scientific Laboratory of “Semantic Analysis and Integration”, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics |
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E-mail
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ross-49@mail.ru |
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Location
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Moscow, Russia |
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Articles
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Agreement conclusion optimization and search for optimum rules of stoppingThe task of agreement conclusion in its mathematical nature is a game and comes to evolutionary-simulation model. The authors' approach may be effectively put into practice using proper imita¬tion models worked out with the «Decision» pack¬age employment. Read more...Developing the economic information system for automated analysis of unstructured text documentsThe study of tasks and methods of automated text rubrication was conducted and their prospects
for the analysis of unstructured electronic text documents were evaluated taking into account
the peculiarities of appeals received from citizens to the authorities. The architecture of the
information system of automated analysis of such documents is developed. It implements the
proposed multi-model approach to the rubrication based on the integrated use of intelligent and
probabilistic-statistical methods. The procedure of processing citizens’appeals received by the authorities
using the document management system and the developed information system is given.
Read more...
Hybrid cyber-modeling in economics: actor-network theory, simulation, NON-factors and super fuzzy logic
Computer simulation is usually the launch of parallel interacting computational processes, similar to
real processes, but in virtual spaces and time. Such a model makes it possible to obtain the metrological
characteristics of a real process, a field study of which is either very expensive or impossible because
of the receiving irreplaceable damage risk. However, to create a model, sometimes there is no complete
set of source data to ensure a satisfactory significance level, and it is necessary to create a model under
conditions of uncertainty. In this case, along with programs that receive metrological characteristics as
source data, there is a need to include programs that implement artificial intelligence methods to obtain
new qualimetric characteristics in the model. In this direction is the development of modern software
for hybrid simulation modeling and related modern methods. According to the publications and author’s
experience, the most studied area of hybrid simulation modeling is the use of bioinspired algorithms.
The using of fuzzy controllers allows you to implement some adaptive methods necessary for simulation
models when searching for acceptable solutions and modes of the simulated processes operation,
for the sake of which these models are created to control. The most difficult area of hybrid simulation is
the use of super-fuzzy logic when conducting interval evaluations of membership functions in the same
simulation models that use fuzzy controllers. This direction requires additional experimental research,
literally «at the scientific interface» of metrology and qualimetry, using special modeling techniques.
Read more...
Information technologies for forecasting the economic processes of financial bubbles controlThe analysis of the problems arising while creating new information technologies for forecasting
economic processes of financial bubbles controls based on simulation models is carried out. The need
to develop such technologies is caused by the growing influence of financial bubbles in the economy,
primarily digital, which use artificial intelligence and the Internet utilizing raw data. The proposed information
technology is justified by theoretically grounded models as well as decision-making methods
and techniques. The proposed approach is based on the theory of equilibrium random processes
and nowadays approaches for measuring and managing financial bubbles are suggested. In particular
complex simulation model of economic agents based on technology of an evolutionary-simulation
model approach is introduced. This approach provides the framework within which a set of interconnected
simulation models and algorithms for optimizing the risks in the dialogue mode is used. To calculate
a financial bubble share an indicator SFB (share of financial bubble) that measures the share of
the secured portion in the nominal value of a currency or security is suggested. This indicator can be
used as a basis for information technology for managing financial bubbles. Finally, some solutions of
the current Russia economic problems based on financial bubbles control are considered.
Read more...
Model of intelligent planning of robot behavior in a team of robotsThe article deals with an urgent problem related to organization of control of a team of intelligent mobile robots and their interaction with each other for the most effective achievement of the goal. The research is aimed at development of interrelated models of intelligent planning of robot behavior, which is based on a market approach resting on a new risk equilibrium model. The substantial and formal formulations of the task of planning of autonomous mobile robots activities are proposed. The author’s model and a set of new simulation models for calculation of the overstatement, understatement costs, as well as their risks are developed. Various calculation algorithms are proposed for various variants of robot interaction: control under conditions of a restricted limit of the most scarce resource (for example, battery energy); interaction between robots using information products (messages); robot control from the center; purchase and sale of the information product; making a decision on subordination and support of communication between robots, etc. Examples of description of robot behavior options (speed of movement, equipment with photos, videos, sampling tools, energy limit), classification of events (fire, traffic accident, violation of law and order, emergency situations, suspicious object) are offered. Examples of calculation procedures are given: robot behavior options, if it is possible to maintain speed depending on energy consumption; adjustment factors to take into account increase of the probability to detect an event due to improvement of the photo quality (wide format, high definition, frame frequency). Read more... Modeling the processes of social self-organization of intelligent agentsThe relevance of the task of modeling human behavior posed in the article is associated with the need for active development of the economy, ensuring the involvement of an increasing proportion of the young population with higher and secondary specialized education. As a result of state incentives for business, more and more people are ready to receive higher education or continue to study at the next levels. When studying the processes of managing the social behavior of subjects, the “system of systems” (SoS) approach was used, within which various methods of modeling, simulation and analysis are developed and studied. The simulation is based on the multi-agent principle, the mechanism of which allows analyzing the behavior of the self-organization of an intelligent agent (social subject) and, if necessary, changing its behavior. The ideal approach for implementing the modeling of a multi-agent system (MAS) of the behavior of an agent is the evolutionary simulation methodology (ESM), which allows developing a set of interconnected optimization simulation models that implements the property of self-organization of intelligent agents. The basic principles of self-organization control are formulated, which is based on the theory of equilibrium random processes (RSP), which provides the possibility of influencing any available parameters and in any combination of them using ESM. The ways of adapting ESM in relation to modeling the process of social self-organization of a young person are considered, and a graphical interpretation of social development is proposed, two parameters are used as phase coordinates: social status and income level. Models of indirect methods of management, choice of the direction of development of a person’s career growth in the production management system based on dynamic programming have been developed. Examples of ESM implementation are given. Read more... Optimal inventory rating control based on the evolutionary simulation modelModern economy is characterized by mass production and introduction of production services within the digital ecosystems that assist the customer in obtaining the final results, in particular, organization of procurement of radio-electronic components. The relevance of the task of optimal inventory rating control is related to development of a service that minimizes risks arising from uncertainty of such factors as receipt of requests for commodity and its supply, supplier’s prices and selling prices, etc. The issues of development of economic and mathematical models of inventory rating optimization applicable to the specific features of vertically integrated companies and legally independent organizations operating in conditions of the market economy on kanban principles are considered. It is shown that in conditions of uncertainty, use of ratings allows to increase the efficiency of the inventory control system. The possibility of presentation of the inventory control system in the form of an evolutionary simulation model is substantiated. The procedure is provided to bring the task of inventory rating to the canonical form of an evolutionary simulation model (ESM). The peculiarities of the inventory control systems are revealed using the examples of “Stock” ESM for VIC and “Zapas” ESM for independent companies. The methods are determined for calculation of the derived rates: the average number of supplies, the average interval between supplies, etc. The contribution of the authors of the article consists in development of the ESM applicable to inventory rating, which combines the simulation models (estimates of the actual overstatement and understatement cost options relative to the planned radioelectronic components inventory rate, as well as estimates of the expected costs (risks) obtained in statistical tests) with the optimization models implemented based on the theory of equilibrium random processes. The aggregate strategy, i.e. the strategy aimed at minimizing the amount of the overstatement and understatement risks is used as a criterion for inventory rating. The experimental studies of “Stock” and “Zapas” models implemented using the “Equilibrium” module of the author’s system – “Decision” allow real-time modeling of various options of the studied rates. Read more... |
