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Authors: Arutyunov A., Nikulina I., Zatonskaya O.     Published in № 2(68) 29 april 2017 year
Rubric: Models and Methods

Aircraft market volume forecasting using Singular Spectrum Analysis and Survivor Curve Analysis

Market volume forecasting is one of the most essential steps in new aircraft development determining critical inputs for sales, manufacturing, finance, after sales support, etc. For aircraft industry forecasting challenges are due to technical characteristics, long-lasting development process and life cycles, that requires forecasting for 10 – 20 or more years. Authors’ experience proves the importance of combined analytical and expert approach in aircraft market volume forecasting for both short and long-term periods. Analytical method is demonstrated in the article. Aircraft market volume is equal to the sum of fleet development forecast and removal from service forecast minus current fleet in terms of the number of aircraft. Fleet development forecasting is executed using Singular Spectrum Analysis. Removal from service forecasting is executed with use of Survivor Curve Analysis. Both Singular Spectrum Analysis and Survivor Curve Analysis are shortly described in the article. Results of passenger widebody airplane segment forecasting for 20 years is given as an example. To test the efficiency of the proposed analytical method forecasting using historical data is executed which means shortening the initial time series on 5, 10, 15 and 20 points and executing a forecast on the respective time period. Test results demonstrate precise fit of the historical data and forecast for 5 and 10 years forecasting. For 15 years forecasting is properly done in terms of numerical aspect but improper in terms of qualitative aspect. To test validity of the forecasting for 20 years the results were compared with Boeing Current Market Outlook 2015, the difference was less than 0.3%. Reckoning on the Boeing’s data is due to the hypothesis of lack of the statistical data while forecasting for 20 years.

Key words

forecasting, aircraft market volume, aircraft fleet, aircraft removal from service, aircraft new deliveries, singular spectrum analysis, survivor curve analysis.

The author:

Arutyunov A.

Degree:

Master of Technique, Volga-Dnepr Airlines LLC

Location:

Moscow

The author:

Nikulina I.

Degree:

Master of Business Administration, Master of Technique, Volga-Dnepr Airlines LLC

Location:

Moscow

The author:

Zatonskaya O.

Degree:

Master of Technique, Volga-Dnepr Airlines LLC

Location:

Moscow