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The author: Tikhanychev O. Published in № 2(74) 27 april 2018 year
Rubric: Models and Methods

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On the introduction of proactive management in decision support systems

One of the conditions for the effective management of complex systems — monitoring and forecasting of changes in their status. Simple monitoring does not always provide adequate control, especially for dynamic systems: in most cases, it is necessary not just to monitor the system state, but also to obtain information about possible changes in advance, that is to use the state of the forecast. Forecasting can be divided into «active», evaluating the possible consequences of the decisions made, and «passive», providing a forecast change of state in the prevailing conditions. It is proposed to use the prediction of the behavior of the control system under the so-called «active monitoring» by replacing this notion of what is now referred to as «passive forecasting». The proposed approach allows to generate control actions in advance, taking into account the forecast of the situation development. To ensure the possibility of implementing the proposed approach, the article analyzes the requirements for modeling tools in the active monitoring loop and the conformity of existing prediction technologies. Keywords: decision-making support system, mathematical simulation, management of large systems, forecasting situation, active monitoring, proactive management.