This article considers the urgent scientific and practical task of developing analytical tools to justify the choice and transformation of a business model for an economic organization in a rapidly changing business environment. The mathematical apparatus of cognitive modelling is proposed to use to solve this problem, which makes it possible, based on the analysis of cause- effect relationships between the most significant conditions and factors affecting the economic efficiency and competitiveness of doing business, to improve the reasonableness and reduce the subjectivity of the decisions made by its owners and top managers. An algorithm to justify the choice of a business model for an organization based on the construction and analysis of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) of business models is proposed. A common list of business factors (concepts) and a set of causality relations between each pair of concepts has been defined, and a basic FCM of the business model is developed as the basis for constructing FCM models of specific businesses. An example of the application of the developed toolkit in a strategic analysis of the conditions and factors of an organization undertaking the production of furniture, carried out to justify a change in competitive strategy and the associated transformation of the business model, is considered. The analysis has been performed using specialized cognitive modelling software developed at the department of information technologies in economics and management, branch of the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute in Smolensk. The proposed toolkit improves methods and algorithms for intelligent decision-making support in the management of economic and social objects and can find practical application in the strategic management of commercial organizations in various fields, as well as be used by professional consultants in the preparation of recommendations for business model change.
cognitive modelling, fuzzy cognitive map, strategic management, business model, business