articles

In recent years, simulation has been actively used to study socio-economic processes in order to test various management decisions (for analyzing risks, projects, regional processes, logistics, etc.). Today, three simulation systems (Actor Pilgrim, AnyLogic, GPSS World), each of which has its own areas of application, are the most widespread in Russia. So, the system Actor Pilgrim is most suitable for modeling socio- economic processes. The first version of this system was developed by a group led by Professor Alexander Anatolyevich Yemelyanov more than 35 years ago to solve experimental problems in the direction of "Flexible automated production". It was based on a new modeling paradigm, which was built on the actor-network theory. The transition to solving new problems, primarily in the economics, led to the need for its further system development through the implementation of temporal, financial and spatial dynamics. Currently, the system development is carried out through the construction of hybrid simulation models, which is associated with the introduction of various analysis methods. So, when modeling actual technical and economic processes (for example, import substitution of high- tech products), it is proposed to use artificial intelligence methods that allow you to get informed decisions in conditions of information uncertainty. Models that include fuzzy logic methods and swarm algorithms (in particular, bacterial optimization) have shown good results. For example, fuzzy logic methods have been used to assign "fair" priorities to option projects through a detailed analysis of the factors of the internal and external environment of enterprises that will implement them. Bacterial optimization algorithms have been used to search for "promising" areas for the implementation of the projects of import substitution of high-tech products. These swarm algorithms are distinguished by the ability to simultaneously study favorable and negative factors, i. e. allow taking into account various risk situations. The modern version of Actor Pilgrim is intended for systems analysts, economists-mathematicians and other professionals who are familiar with programming, but are not professional programmers.